Future studies. Who predicts our future?
- Kamila Niemotko
- Apr 3, 2023
- 3 min read
Updated: Jul 1, 2023
Future studies or future research is one of the most controversial science fields. So, what is it and why?
Future studies are a systematic study of possible and probable futures. One can consider it a branch of social studies or even an extensive history field. As a holistic study, it focuses on social and technological advancements as well as other environmental trends. In other words, future studies scholars explore how people will live and function in the future. They use a variety of techniques, such as forecasting, morphological analysis, and social network analysis. Generally, future research emphasizes exploring many alternatives rather than predicting one possibility. It is an interdisciplinary field, as it combines multiple academic disciplines.
The study of futuristics is controversial, and many scientists regard it as pseudoscience. Yet, the Association of Professional Futurists was formed in 2002, developing a Foresight Competency Model in 2017, and it is now possible to study it academically, for example at the FU Berlin in their master's course. On December 2, 2022, UNESCO celebrated the first World Futures Day.
Originally, these studies were known under the term foresight, which was first used by British writer H.G. Wells. The term is used today but is more commonly known as strategic foresight.
Origins of predicting the future date back to ancient times, considering the presence of oracles and prophecy tellers in different cultures. The Middle Ages brought numerous works that could be considered future research, such as Francis Bacon’s study. The development and advancement of mathematics in the 17th-century allowed for the calculation of statistical and probabilistic concepts. In 18th-century Britain, investors established mathematical formulas to assess the future value of an asset. Further progression in futurology happened during the industrial revolution. Thomas Robert Malthus published An Essay on the Principle of Population in 1798, which described a theory of possible future population growth. The book is believed to be one of the first European dystopias. In the 20th century, study of the future became more widespread with famous authors like H.G. Wells and Fred L. Polak. Future studies emerged as an academic discipline in the 1960s. Historians, political scientists, and sociologists who engaged in critical futures studies laid the foundations of peace and conflict studies. One of the best-known works of the 1970s was Alvin and Heidi Toffler's bestseller Future Shock, which focused on the future of the post-industrial economy. Later futuristic studies, such as the 1972 report The Limits to Growth, focused more on climate change. Today it is possible to study future academically in multiple universities all across the world.
Techniques that are typically used in future studies include:
Cyclical Pattern Analysis
Environmental Scanning
Backcasting
Visioning
Trend Analysis
Scenario method
and more.
Future research is a field that is not common among the general public. Although many may recognize one of the contributions to future studies—science fiction. This genre uses the same technique and creates visions of possible futures. Science fiction, according to Pamela Sargent, "reflects attitudes typical of this century." She provides a quick overview of influential science fiction works, including Robert A. Heinlein's Starship Troopers and Isaac Asimov's The Foundation Trilogy. Other viewpoints support science fiction as a component of the fuzzy "pictures of the future". On the other hand, futurology also influenced general art. Not only was literature influenced, but it also had an impact on other media. Shows like Westworld and Black Mirror follow the same rules of creating future visions, similar to futurists.
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